South Central Texas Partners...
...HEADLINE...Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon thru at least midnight for most areas of South Central Texas. Enhanced risk of supercell thunderstorms over northern areas.
...AREA OF CONCERN...The eastern 2/3rds of South Central Texas....mainly areas east of a Kerrville to Carrizo Springs line. This threat area includes most of the Hill Country, the Austin/San Antonio metro areas, and coastal plain east of I-35. An enhanced risk of severe weather exists mainly along and north of a Burnet-Austin-Giddings line. This area includes Burnet, Williamson, Travis, and Lee Counties.
...IMPACTS...Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes. Supercell thunderstorms are possible.
...TIMING...Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, possibly lasting until midnight. The time when severe storms are most likely will be from 4 pm to midnight.
...DISCUSSION...An upper level disturbance is moving through north Texas, as a weak cold front and dry line will approach from the northwest later today. The atmosphere is extremely unstable meaning there is plenty of fuel for these forecast severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of South Central Texas in a slight risk area, with even our northern counties of Burnet, Williamson, and Lee counties right near a MODERATE risk. It is very rare we have a moderate risk area near South Central Texas.
Some storms may develop out ahead of the front and approaching upper storm as early as 2-3 pm across portions of the area. As we get later in the afternoon and evening, storms will likely become severe and move or develop over South Central Texas. Supercell thunderstorms are possible over the area. These are the storms that typically have the biggest hail, strongest winds, and largest tornadoes.
Storms should move generally from west to east across the area. Later on tonight past the evening hours, we may see the storms transition from supercells to more of a line or cluster of storms. While the best ingredients for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be to the North and Northeast of South Central Texas (NE Texas and the AR-LA-TX border area), the threat over us should not be taken lightly as we have seen a history of destructive tornadoes over the past week. This same atmosphere is still in place and everybody needs to keep an eye to the sky, keep their cell phones at arms length, and have constant monitoring of radar and media later today and tonight.
You can see the latest forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories by going to the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service website at www.weather.gov/austin